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Consumer prices in Britain rose at the slowest rate in two and a half years, the country’s Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday. Inflation was 3.2 percent in the year through March, down from 3.4 percent in February but a touch higher than the 3.1 percent economists expected, a sign that the path to cooler inflation could be bumpy. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was 4.2 percent, down from 4.5 percent the month before. Economists expect inflation to continue to slow over the next few months, possibly going below the Bank of England’s target of 2 percent, as household energy bills fall. Britain’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in its latest reading, published this week.
Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of Locations: Britain
Two of the world's biggest economies are officially in recession, per new figures published Thursday. Meanwhile, UK growth shrank for the second straight quarter — just months ahead of a key election. Japan and the UK are both officially in recession, according to figures published Thursday, after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for two consecutive quarters to close out 2023. UK: Cost-of-living crisis, weak spendingBritain also got some bad economic news Thursday, as official data showed its economy shrank by 0.3% between October and December — its second straight quarterly contraction. That officially put the UK into recession.
Persons: , Dow Jones, It's, juicier, Goldman Sachs, Rishi Sunak Organizations: Service, Gross, Dow, Bank of, Britain, Bank of England’s, European Union, Conservatives, Labour Party, Politico Locations: Japan, Germany, China, European
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with the Bank of England’s Andrew BaileyBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick after the central bank’s rate decision.
Persons: Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey, Steve Sedgwick Organizations: Bank of England’s, Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey Bank of England
UK inflation posts first rise in almost a year
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
London CNN —UK inflation accelerated in December for the first time since February last year, official data showed Wednesday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained stuck at 5.1%, while services inflation increased from 6.3% to 6.4%. The UK data mirrors the trend in the United States and Europe of slight upticks in headline inflation. Energy prices could also rise if the conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Still, several leading UK economists shrugged off the latest increase in inflation, noting that inflation could return to the Bank of England’s 2% target by the spring, helped by recent falls in energy prices.
Persons: Grant Fitzner, shrugged, , Roger Barker, Yael Selfin Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Reuters, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England’s, Institute of, KPMG, Bank of England Locations: United States, Europe, Red
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
Last week, data showed that Britain’s inflation rate had dropped to 4.6 percent in October, and Mr. Sunak declared victory in his pledge to halve inflation this year. The government’s fiscal credibility was also severely damaged by the unfunded tax cuts of Liz Truss’s short premiership. When he was installed as chancellor a year ago, Mr. Hunt took a cautious approach to the nation’s money and abandoned nearly all of Ms. Truss’s plans. He said there was little scope for spending increases and tax cuts because debt levels needed to be cut and the government had to be careful not to stoke inflationary pressures. Now with the election in sight, Mr. Hunt has found the money to offer some sweeteners in the form of lower taxes and even a freeze on alcohol duty.
Persons: ” Mr, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Liz Truss’s, Truss’s, Stephen Castle Organizations: Bank of England’s Locations: United States, Western Europe
LONDON (AP) — U.K. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt says the government can afford to lower some taxes now that inflation is falling, but that any cuts will come along with a squeeze on welfare benefits. British media have reported that there will be relief for businesses and wealthy property-owners in Hunt’s autumn budget statement on Wednesday. But he cautioned to broadcasters on Saturday that “there’s no easy way to reduce the tax burden. The most likely tax cuts are a reduction in corporation tax and slashing inheritance tax, a move that would help the wealthy. Only about 4% of estates have to pay inheritance tax.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, , ” Hunt, Rishi Sunak’s, Liz Truss, Ken Clarke, “ I’m, Organizations: Treasury, Saturday's Daily Telegraph, Conservative, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative, Bank of England’s, Labour Party, Conservative Treasury Locations: Ukraine
London CNN —The Bank of England downgraded its forecasts for UK economic growth Thursday and kept interest rates unchanged, even as it warned that the Israel-Hamas war could push up energy prices and inflation won’t return to target for another two years. “There are increasing signs that higher interest rates are weighing on economic activity and we see that in weaker activity data and in a range of business surveys,” Governor Andrew Bailey told reporters. Inflation is still too high,” Bailey said, also pointing to the risk that the Israel-Hamas war could lift energy prices. “We will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to make sure we get inflation all the way back to the 2% target,” he added. Inflation still a concernThe Bank of England expects inflation to continue easing, but warned of risks to that outlook.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, ” Bailey, , Rishi Sunak, Bailey, , Martin Beck Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, The, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, of England, Office, National Statistics, The Bank of England, UK Locations: Israel, United Kingdom
BOE Leaves Key Interest Rate At 5.25%
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
A city worker passes the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Oct. 16, 2023. Photo: Jason Alden/Bloomberg NewsThe Bank of England’s policy makers Thursday left their key interest rate unchanged for the second straight meeting, but said they don’t expect to ease policy soon. The decision to hold the rate at 5.25% was backed by six members of the Monetary Policy Committee, while three voted for a rise in the key rate to 5.5%. At their last meeting in September, four members voted for a higher rate. Prior to that decision to hold, the BOE had raised its key rate in 14 straight meetings.
Persons: BOE, Jason Alden Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, The Bank of, Monetary, Committee Locations: City, City of London
The central bank began its tightening cycle in December 2021, raising rates from near zero to levels last seen during the financial crisis of 2008. The central bank has said Ben Bernanke, the former U.S. Federal Reserve chair, will lead a review into the bank’s forecasting processes. But this week, some news landed in the central bank’s favor. Better still for the central bank, measures of domestic inflationary pressures also slowed. As inflation rates drop across much of the world and economies are weakening, in part because of the aggressive policy tightening by central banks, policymakers are trying to carefully calibrate the right level of interest rates.
Persons: Ben Bernanke Organizations: U.S . Federal
A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Investors had already rushed on Wednesday to reel in their bets on further UK rate rises after data showed UK inflation cooled surprisingly quickly in August. Against the euro , the pound was down 0.5% at 86.74 pence, having traded around 86.70 pence before the decision. "The MPC still refers to its flexibility to react should things change, but the chances are this could be the peak in this UK interest rate cycle." "However, there is a risk that the ‘lag effect’ on interest rate hikes means that today’s decision may not be felt for another 9 to 12 months."
Persons: Hollie Adams, Sterling, THOMAS, Huw Pill's, HUGH GIMBER, PHILIP SHAW, DOUGLAS GRANT, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, FRANCES HAQUE, JOE TUCKEY, RICHARD GARLAND, GILES COGHLAN, BoE, stagflation, Amanda Cooper, Dhara Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, London, Investors, Bank of, Bank, MPC, SANTANDER, LONDON, Core CPI, PMI, CPI, EMEA, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, MANX, EUROPEAN, FRANCE, GROUP, OXFORDSHIRE
So how should central banks coordinate when their economies are headed in opposite directions? And since the start of the pandemic, international monetary policy has looked striking similar. From the United States to Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, many major world economies slashed interest rates to historically low levels in March 2020 to stimulate their economies amid Covid lockdowns. Central bankers do “talk a lot, and we see each other quite a bit,” said Andrew Bailey, Bank of England’s president, at a June event hosted by the European Central Bank. “Adopting formal global monetary policy cooperation could plausibly erode central bank credibility and public support for central bank independence,” former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said at a 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference.
Persons: Jackson, , Nick Bennenbroek, , Andrew Bailey ,, Richard Clarida, “ There’s, ” Bennenbroek, Jerome Powell Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Kansas City Federal Reserve, Andrew Bailey , Bank of England’s, European Central Bank, Federal, Asia Economic Policy Locations: lockstep, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, United States, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, China, Wells, Asia
London CNN —The UK economy grew in the three months to June 30, compared with the previous quarter, official data showed Friday. Unlike its G7 peers, the UK economy still has not returned to pre-pandemic levels of output. In the three years before Covid’s rapid spread in 2020, UK output expanded by an average of 0.5% per quarter. Survey data also suggests that Britain’s bout of feeble economic growth has continued beyond the second quarter. The preliminary reading of the Purchasing Managers’ Index for July showed hardly any growth in UK private sector output and the weakest rise in six months.
Persons: , Darren Morgan, Rishi Sunak Organizations: London CNN, Gross, National Statistics, Bank of England’s, Bank of England Locations: United Kingdom
U.K. Economy Grows Weakly
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Kevin Granville | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
The data beat the Bank of England’s forecast last week for 0.1 percent growth, and some economists had predicted a quarter of no growth. For over a year, beginning with the second quarter of 2022, Britain’s economy expanded each quarter by 0.1 percent — except for the July-September period last year, when it contracted by the same amount. Comparisons: Growth in Europe and United StatesIn Europe, the 20 countries that use the euro currency haven’t faired much better in terms of economic growth. The eurozone expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter, after stalling earlier in the year and shrinking 0.1 percent late last year. “Low economic growth and stagnant productivity is increasing the financial vulnerability of households in the bottom half of the income distribution and the incidence of destitution at the poorest end,” the report said.
Persons: King Charles, Andrew Bailey, Organizations: Office, National Statistics, Bank of England’s, Bank of England, Bank, National Institute of Economic, Social Research Locations: Britain, Europe, United States, London
Is it time to worry about stagflation?
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.
Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, , Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, , That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia
Oil and food prices have jumped in recent weeks, and wages are still growing strongly in some of the world’s biggest economies. The UN global Food Price Index rose in July, notching only the second monthly increase in a year of steady declines. Oil supply cutsGlobal oil prices have shot up in recent weeks. The International Energy Agency has forecast that global oil demand will rise to a record 102 million barrels this year. Rising oil prices have spurred a jump in US gasoline prices, which hit an average of $3.82 a gallon Tuesday.
Persons: ” Randall Kroszner, , Price, Chris Ratcliffe, Richard Bronze, , , unraveled, ” Kroszner, — “, Michelle Bowman Organizations: London CNN, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve System, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, CNN, UN, Bloomberg, Getty, West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Capital Economics, “ Labor, Bank Locations: Ukraine, United States, United Kingdom, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Moscow
London CNN —The Bank of England raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Thursday as inflation remains stubbornly high. Six members of the monetary policy committee voted for the quarter point hike, two for a half point hike, and one for a pause. “The UK thus faces many more months of de facto policy tightening to come even after policymakers stop raising the bank rate,” he added. Inflation in the UK is still stubbornly high despite having eased back in recent months. Core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy costs — also dropped to 6.9% last month from 7.1% in May, which was its highest rate in 31 years.
Persons: Kallum Pickering, , Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Berenberg, Bank of Locations: United Kingdom,
VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."
Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S
LONDON, July 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Bank of England’s silence has left traders in a tizzy. Market interest rates have spiked due to soaring inflation expectations, pushing up mortgage costs. That looks like an over-reaction but unless Governor Andrew Bailey says so, homeowners will pay the price. Now, traders believe rates will be at around 6.2% in a year’s time and stay above 5.8% for a further two years. That spike sent the average two-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.66% on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2008, according to Moneyfacts.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, BoE, abate, Bailey, Liz Truss, Neil Unmack, Pranav Kiran Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Finance, Bank of England, Thomson
London CNN —When central banks raise interest rates, mortgage borrowers can expect higher monthly repayments, while savers are supposed to be rewarded with bigger returns on their deposits. In Asia, the picture is less uniform: China cut its benchmark lending rate last month, adding to recent reductions in other interest rates, and Japan has kept its main interest rate negative in a bid to stimulate demand. However, rates on savings accounts there are closer to the central bank’s main rate than in other major economies. “While interest rates were ultra-low, the mortgage market was incredibly competitive, so [banks] were operating on unusually small margins between savings rates and mortgage deals… so they’re busy filling their boots,” she said. The top 100 US money market funds tracked by Crane Data are offering an average annual interest rate of 4.94%.
Persons: Nathan Howard, Jeremy Hunt, Sarah Coles, Hargreaves Lansdown, , Christopher Furlong, Crane, Peter Crane, they’ve Organizations: London CNN, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, European Central Bank, of, CNN, Getty Images Bank, Finance, Bank of England’s, HSBC, Barclays, Crane Data, Bank of England, Locations: Europe, United States, United Kingdom, Asia, China, Japan, South Korea
UK banks are appropriate airbag for mortgage crash
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Last year this was 2.9% on average for Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays. Hunt may be able to get banks to hike their savings rates merely by veiled threats. After all, the government would only be getting banks to do what they should be doing anyway. “It is taking too long for the increase in interest rates to be passed on to savers, particularly with instant access accounts,” Hunt told parliament. Around 60% of household deposits are held in instant access accounts, the committee said.
Persons: Banks, Jeremy Hunt, shouldn’t, it’s, Hunt, ” Hunt, , Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Monday, Banking Group, NatWest, Barclays, Lloyds, JPMorgan, NatWest –, Alpha, Treasury, Bank of England, Labour Party, National Savings and Investments, of, Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC, Barclays –, Thomson
“Mortgage misery for millions.” “Rate rise nightmare.” These were just two of the grim headlines on Britain’s front pages taking aim at the Bank of England on Friday, the day after it announced a surprisingly large increase in interest rates. With inflation running persistently high, the country’s central bank officials took more forceful action than expected on Thursday, raising rates half a point to 5 percent, the highest level in 15 years. “We know this is hard,” said Andrew Bailey, the governor of the central bank, acknowledging that people with mortgages and other loans would be worried about the impact of the change on their finances. The central bank had already raised interest rates 12 times since December 2021, and still Britain’s inflation rate was stuck at 8.7 percent in May, the same as the previous month. It’s more than double the rate in the United States and notably higher than inflation in Britain’s neighbors in Western Europe.
Persons: , Andrew Bailey Organizations: Bank of England Locations: United States, Western Europe
Bank of England Pushes Interest Rates Up by a Half Point
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point on Thursday, a larger-than-expected move, as policymakers struggle to bring down Britain’s persistently high rate of inflation. The central bank’s rate-setting committee lifted rates for a 13th consecutive time, to 5 percent, the highest since early 2008. The bank’s decision came a day after the latest inflation data underscored the bank’s challenge: Consumer prices rose 8.7 percent in May from a year earlier, the same as the previous month, instead of falling as economists had predicted. Despite the Bank of England’s efforts so far, there is accumulating evidence that inflation will be harder to stamp out than previously expected. In the past week, data has shown that pay in Britain has increased faster than expected, inflation in the services sector has accelerated and food inflation is still near the highest level in more than 45 years.
Organizations: of England, Bank of Locations: Britain
London CNN —The Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point Thursday, after data this week revealed surprisingly stubborn inflation. Many mortgage holders due to refinance their loans this year and next bought their homes when interest rates were much lower and mortgage rates were closer to 1% or 2%. Capital Economics is forecasting a 12% decline in house prices between their August 2022 peak and 2024. If interest rates must stay higher for longer to tame inflation, house prices could fall more sharply. “If mortgage rates were to stay at 6% for several years, a house price fall of 25% would be likely,” Wishart said.
Persons: we’ve, Andrew Bailey, , Jake Berry, Rishi Sunak, ” Simon Pittaway, Tom Bill, Knight Frank, Bill, Banks, ” Bill, , There’s, Andrew Wishart, ” Wishart Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, ” Bank of England, ” Financial, , Institute for Fiscal Studies, UK Finance, CNN, Savings, Capital Economics Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Europe,
UK has little wiggle room on mortgage aid
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to provide relief for mortgage borrowers buckling under soaring interest rates. The problem is that mortgage relief dilutes the Bank of England’s fight against inflation, which remained stubbornly high at 8.7% in May. The UK government is to meet mortgage lenders to discuss helping households struggling with their home loans, finance minister Jeremy Hunt told parliament on June 20. However, Hunt ruled out introducing state-backed support to help mortgage borrowers facing higher costs due to soaring interest rates. Hunt said that offering government mortgage relief would be inflationary.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, , Jeremy Hunt, BoE, Hunt, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, UK Finance, Conservatives, Labour Party, Bank of England’s, Conservative Party, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Spain, Poland
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